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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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